Food inflation falls further to 3.9% year-on-year in October 2025

Source: Aleksandr1982 via Pixabay

The modest deceleration in vegetables by 5.6 percentage points (ppts) from the previous month, fruits and nuts (-3.7ppts), sugar, confectionery and desserts (-0.5ppts), and meat (-0.3ppts) categories more than offset gains in cereal products (0.4ppts), milk, other dairy products and eggs (0.1ppts), and oils and fats (+0.1ppts) prices.

Monthly, food inflation remained in deflation for the third consecutive month after easing by 0.1% month-on-month in October 2025.

Vegetables and meat drive the trend

Vegetable inflation remained on the downside underpinned by massive declines in big-ticket items such as fresh potatoes and onions, which fell by 30.9% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively, in October 2025.

Meat lost steam after surging to record highs in the past few months due to a combination of consumer demand constraints and improved availability domestically.

Meat inflation slowed but was ll at double-digit levels of 11.4% y/y in October from 11.7% year-on-year in September, further steadying on a month-on-month basis.

Cereals show underlying declines

While cereal products inflation at the consumer level eased by 0.4 ppts from September to 2% year-on-year in October 2025, the underlying raw product prices continue to trend a record lows.

For example, the average monthly white maize prices recently declined by 35.3% (-R1,980/t) year-on-year at R3,627/t while its yellow counterpart fell by 1.4% (-R953/t) year to R3,493/t in October 2025, which signals a potential reversal of the cereal inflation trajectory in the medium term. Wheat prices eased by 0.6% (-R37/t) year-on-year at R5,911/t during the same period.

Seasonal outlook and production factors

The combination of a massive 2024/25 commercial summer crop harvest and the excellent 2025/26 seasonal outlook underpins the current downturn in producer prices.

Recently, the National Crop Estimates Committee’s First Intentions to Plant report showed that farmers are likely to increase their 2025/26 summer crop plantings by 1.3% year-on-year to 4.50 million hectares.

South Africa’s major crops, such as maize and soybeans, will see planted area increasing by 2.3% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, to 2.67 million and 1.18 million hectares.

However, the continued foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) induced disruptions to trade remain a concern for the livestock industry despite efforts at vaccinations currently being executed across the country.

Outlook: more downside surprises expected

Finally, when considering the downturn in the interest rate outlook, better 2025/26 seasonal production conditions with a return of the La Nina weather pattern, and a resurgent rand exchange rate, which has recently broken below the R17/US$ level since February 2023, we expect further downside surprises in food inflation outcomes in the medium term.