The analysis, produced with Data Appeal and Mabrian, compared airline schedules before the escalation of the conflict on 28 February 2026 with updated schedules for May and June travel.
Globally, airlines reduced seat capacity by 2.1% as carriers responded to airspace disruption, operational uncertainty, rising fuel prices and increasing insurance costs.
Western Asia recorded the largest decline at 10.1%, followed by Southeast Asia at 7.2%.
Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a smaller 2.9% reduction, while North Africa saw a 2.1% adjustment.
Despite schedule adjustments, Africa continued to record year-on-year growth compared with the same period in 2025.
North Africa recorded 7.9% growth in air capacity, while Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 4.6%.
Global seat capacity overall rose by 2.3%, while Western Asia remained the only major region still in contraction year-on-year at 4.9%.
“The conflict has created immediate operational challenges for aviation globally. Airlines are dealing with disrupted corridors, higher fuel prices and longer routing times.
“But Africa’s skies have remained open and operating smoothly with air capacity up approximately 6% in average year-on year. While there have been some short-term schedule adjustments, the continent continues to outperform many regions globally, and the figures underline Africa’s growing strategic importance.
"Members are telling us customers are either seeking reassurance, but still travelling or postponing trips rather than cancelling,” said Virginia Messina, group CEO of Atta.
The report found that 70 non-African countries are expected to operate direct flights to Africa during 2026.
More than 89 million inbound seats are scheduled to the continent, with total inbound capacity forecast to grow by 4.4% year-on-year.
Europe remains Africa’s largest external aviation market with more than 50.7 million inbound seats scheduled for 2026, reflecting a growth of 5.6%.
The strongest-growing origin markets to Africa include Russia (23.1%), Portugal (13.4%), Italy (11%), China (11%), India (9.3%), the United Kingdom (8.6%) and Türkiye (8.6%).
Intra-African connectivity is forecast to exceed 112 million seats in 2026, up 6.6% year-on-year.
South Africa remains the continent’s largest intra-African aviation market with 24.6 million seats.
Nigeria, Algeria, Mauritius and Madagascar were among the fastest-growing aviation markets in Africa.
According to Carlos Cendra, chief marketing officer at Data Appeal: “Africa has a clear medium- to long-term opportunity to leverage growth in both international and regional connectivity to accelerate its tourism sector.
"In a global market where demand is highly fluid and shifts rapidly in response to the geopolitical environment, the continent now holds a competitive advantage to emerge as a compelling alternative for travellers seeking sustainable and authentic new experiences.”
Atta said the figures indicate that Africa is continuing to attract aviation growth despite geopolitical instability affecting global airline operations.
